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Premier League Darts 22/05

Thursday is our weekly Premier League Darts day at home. No Beer and crazy suits here. But cosy together on the sofa with a glass of wine, some tapas and a soft blanket. Luxury horses, you know. My girlfriend has been a darts fanatic for 15 years and an amateur player. I am just an enthusiast who has thrown 1 dart in his entire life and decided he has other skills. So today I did things differently and let her make the prediction for later. I've already put some marbles on this combination!

Littler - Bunting
Based on last year's stats, Littler is the favourite, but Bunting has certainly had his moments.

Statistics & Form

- Littler has a higher average score (100.48) than Bunting (97.18) and produces significantly more 180s (929 vs 596).

- Both players have an identical highest finish of 170.

- Littler is slightly more effective on doubles (checkout percentage 42.05% vs 40.66%) and wins a greater percentage of his legs (60.16% vs 54.86%).

- At key moments, Littler is also sharper: he wins more legs when he gets to start (71.36% vs 67.44%) as well as when he has to break (50.76% vs 42.04%).

- In mutual encounters, Littler is leading 5-3, with him especially prevailing in other ranking tournaments.

Correct Score Odds distribution

- The most likely outcome according to the data is a 6-3 win for Littler (15.68% chance), followed by 6-4 (14.90%) and 6-2 (13.93%).

- Bunting is most likely to win 6-5 (12.58).

Conclusion:
Littler is clearly in top form, dominating on almost all statistical fronts. Yet Bunting has shown that he is not hopeless, especially in exciting decisive legs. However, everything points to a win for Littler unless Bunting rises above himself.

Nathan Aspinall - Michael van Gerwen

Both players are evenly matched, the statistics give a slight advantage to Aspinall, but is this enough to put this experienced Dutchman under his thumb?

Statistics & Form

- Aspinall has a slightly higher FDI score (1845) than Van Gerwen (1807), and also on TV (1894 vs 1848) the Englishman scores just a little better.

- The odds calculation points Aspinall as favourite with 57.36% chance of winning against 42.64% for Van Gerwen.

- In the mutual encounters, Van Gerwen does have the advantage: 20 wins against 11 for Aspinall (and 1 draw). Especially on major stages (majors), the Dutchman is dominant.

- Looking at last year's statistics, Van Gerwen has a higher match average (97.21 vs 94.44), more 180s (414 vs 407), a higher checkout percentage (41.86% vs 38.58%) and wins a fraction more legs (54.57% vs 53.40%).

- On scoring ability (first 9 and first 3 averages), Van Gerwen is also stronger, as is rounding with the third dart (checkout 3rd dart: 40.77% vs 34.78%).

- In contrast, Aspinall is sharper again on the bullseye (33.93% vs 26.67%) and scores better on the starting double, although Van Gerwen is extremely efficient there this year (hit pct 66.67%).

Correct Score Odds distribution

- The most likely outcomes are 6-4 for Aspinall (13.52%), followed by 6-5 for Aspinall (12.78%) and 6-3 for Aspinall (12.72%).

- For Van Gerwen, the odds are best at 6-5 (11.46%) and 6-4 (10.87%).

Conclusion: Van Gerwen can put up slightly better numbers on many fronts and historically, he wins more often in a clash between them. Still, Aspinall's current odds and form, give him a slight advantage. I expect an exciting match in which details make the difference, but my missus is convinced that Van Gerwen really does have something to prove again and has set his sights on that tricky first round.

Prediction: Van Gerwen wins the match.

Luke Humphries - Rob Cross

Based on the statistics, Humphries is the clear favourite, but Cross has shown in the past that he can be dangerous.

Statistics & Form

- Humphries has a significantly higher FDI score (1868) than Cross (1771), and the advantage is also clear on TV (1909 vs 1811).

- The odds calculation gives Humphries a 68.18% chance of winning (odds 1.47) versus 31.82% for Cross (odds 3.14).

- In mutual encounters, however, Cross leads narrowly: 14 wins against 11 for Humphries.

- Looking at last year, Humphries records a higher average (98.24 vs 95.89), more 180s (620 vs 368) and a higher percentage of legs won (58.94% vs 53.31%).

- On scoring (first 9 and first 3 averages) and on decisive legs (101.13 vs 92.03),Humphries is clearly stronger.

- Both players have a highest finish of 170, but Humphries is slightly more effective at finishing with the third dart (checkout 3rd dart: 42.89% vs 37.33%).

- Cross is slightly sharper on the bullseye (23.73% vs 19.74%) and has a better percentage when hitting the starting double with the first dart (52.94% vs 40.74%).

Correct Score Odds distribution

- The most likely outcomes are 6-3 (15.23%), 6-4 (14.76%) and 6-2 (13.27%) for Humphries.

- Cross is most likely to win at 6-5 (9.62%) and 6-4 (8.45%).

Conclusion: based on the numbers and recent form, Humphries is the man to beat, mainly thanks to his scoring ability and stability in decisive legs. Still, Cross is an experienced player who can always provide a surprise, especially if he finds his doubles quickly. Still, she goes for the favourite in the odds here too and opts for Luke.

Prediction: Luke Humphries wins the match.

Gerwyn Price - Chris Dobey
Based on the statistics, Price seems to be the favourite, but Dobey has shown lately that he shoud not be underestimated and is ready for a surprise.

Statistics & Form

- Price has a higher FDI score (1846) than Dobey (1796), and the Welshman also has the advantage on TV (1885 vs 1838).

- The odds ratio gives Price a 59.64% chance of winning, compared to 40.36% for Dobey.

- In the encounters between them, Price clearly leads: 18 wins against three for Dobey.

- Still, last year's averages are close (Price 96.75, Dobey 97.06). Dobey even throws more 180s (553 vs 510) and is sharper than Price in decisive legs on average (99.81 vs 95.56 and 55.88% decisive legs won for Dobey).

- Dobey also has a slight advantage in scoring in the first nine darts (106.72 vs 105.47) and is steady on finishes in decisive moments.

- Both players have a highest finish of 170. Price is usually stronger on the doubls, but Dobey has proven to take his chances precisely in the crucial legs.

Correct Score Odds distribution

- The most likely outcomes are 6-4 (13.85%), 6-3 (13.26%) and 6-5 (12.85%) for Price.

- Dobey is most likely to win at 6-5 (11.13%) and 6-4 (10.38%).

Conclusion: Although Price starts as favourite based on the numbers and mutual history, Dobey has the momentum and form to provide a surprise. Especially in the decisive legs, Dobey has proved rock solid of late. If he can maintain his level and handle the pressure, he can beat Price.

Prediction: Chris Dobey wins the match!

Luke Littler - Stephen Bunting: Littler wins @ 1.26
Nathan Aspinall - Michael Van Gerwen: Michael Van Gerwen wins @ 1.75
Luke Humphries - Rob Cross: Luke Humpries wint @ 1.44
Gerwyn Price - Chris Dobey: Chris Dobey wint @ 2.11
Totale odds voor de combinatie: 6.70

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Premier League Darts 22/05